VINTAGE CHASE TRACKER
Home › Data log › 4 Sep 2026

Data log — 4 Sep 2026

9 runs · 157 marks moved · 4699 sales added · 15 listings added · 3 removed. Every refresh writes this log so the automation can be checked rather than trusted.

21:48 UTC — asks refresh (8h)

Re-verified all 93 tracked listings (WebSearch+WebFetch): 2 sales recorded (Neo Genesis 1st Ed box $90,000 Aug 25; Mario Pikachu PSA 10 $38,000 Sep 2), Rayquaza Gold Star PSA 10 ask raised to ~$1.51M (EUR 1,299,999), 3 new asks added; no source fully blocked, though eBay pages needed search-provenance and a few catalog redirects were skipped.

16:45 UTC — build v53 · full Card Ladder sweep + analytics

Card Ladder sweep of the remaining 159 chases across Fossil, Base Set, Base Set 2, Team Rocket, Neo Genesis/Discovery/Revelation/Destiny, Expedition, Aquapolis and Skyridge (ladders exist for ~45 of them; Expedition, Base Set 2 and most Unlimited prints have none and stay on PriceCharting guides) plus ~1,100 dated PSA 7–9 / raw sales with eBay links · Neo Genesis Typhlosion #17 1st Ed $15.4K→$415,500 (Card Ladder Jun 4, pop 13; a further $750K private sale Aug 10 via Nostalgix is on the tape but does not set the mark) · Base Chansey 1st Ed $40K→$165K (Jul 9, pop 48, single sale) · Neo Revelation Blissey 1st Ed $11K→$86.6K (Jun 25, pop 11) · Houndoom 1st Ed $25.7K→$47.6K · Neo Genesis Pichu $26.2K→$49.7K · Meganium $20.3K→$50K · Skyridge Umbreon H30 $43.7K→$78K · Aquapolis Espeon H9 $13.4K→$25.8K · Base Hitmonchan 1st Ed $17K→$29.4K · Base Pikachu Red Cheeks $18.9K→$28.5K · Fossil Dragonite 1st Ed $19.4K→$23.8K · Heracross 1st Ed $25.6K→$13.7K (guide) · print hygiene added: a recent "PSA 10" print under 40% of the mark is rejected as a mis-labelled grade (4 caught, incl. a $738 Mewtwo 1st Ed ladder row and a $168K Rayquaza ★ print), ladder rows older than Jan 2025 never set today's mark, and the current partial month needs ≥2 sales in a grade before it counts · new analytics: drawdown & recovery table and rolling 12-month correlation to .AGG, gold (GC=F month-end) and the S&P 500 on every index page; Stale Marks screen on F6 · PSA 10 pops filled for the 7 Poncho promos that lacked one (Card Ladder / PriceCharting pop report, Sep 4) and for Rocket's Snorlax Unlimited and Shining Gyarados Double Holo Error (Pikawiz) — every tracked card now carries a sourced PSA 10 pop

14:29 UTC — build v50 · factor-weighted, monthly-rebalanced variants

Every card index now has a -W twin on the benchmark board (17 added: .GLDSTR-W, .PONCHO-W, .CRYSTAL-W, .MOMO-W … .1STED-W). At each month start members are z-scored on ln PSA 10 mark, ln gem market cap, ln slab premium and −ln pop, averaged, mapped to weight ∝ e^z, capped 25% / floored 1%; weights float with price inside the month and reset at the next month start; level chains Σ w × return from 1,000. Value and mcap use the prior month-end mark only; pop and raw are the latest snapshot (no history exists). Each -W page shows the full weight table (z-scores, target vs floating), the rebalance log with turnover, and a Σ w × r = month-return check. Engine verified against an independent recomputation (.GLDSTR-W 3,823.9 both ways). Day-by-day changes are not observable from monthly marks — 1D pace remains pro-rated.

13:32 UTC — build v49 · Crystal Index

.CRYSTAL added to the benchmark board (5th row) — the nine e-Reader Crystal secret rares: Aquapolis Lugia $132K (CL Aug 23), Nidoking $16.2K→$20.7K (CL Aug 30), Kingdra $9.7K (PC guide, no ladder); Skyridge Charizard $99K→$120K (CL Aug 28, 13 sales $85–133K), Ho-Oh $23.7K→$50.3K (CL Aug 27, 3 sales $36–53K), Celebi $27.5K→$33K (CL Aug 9), Crobat $10.5K, Kabutops $8.1K, Golem $7.2K (PC guides) · ~530 dated Crystal sales added with eBay links · every harvested chase series now feeds its set leg (Aquapolis 5 series, Skyridge 10, Jungle 22, Gym Heroes 22, Legendary 14)

13:05 UTC — build v48 · Jungle + Legendary Collection deep dive

Jungle and Legendary Collection re-priced from Card Ladder last sales (all 32 chases; 3 Legendary reverse holos have no ladder page and stay on the PriceCharting guide) and ~2,000 dated PSA 7–9 / raw sales added from PriceCharting with eBay item links · Snorlax 1st Ed $33.6K→$102K (CL Aug 23, 4 sales $52.8–102K, pop 76) · Vaporeon 1st Ed $9.6K→$27.3K · Clefable 1st Ed $4.1K→$15.6K · Snorlax Unlimited $4.6K→$19.8K · Vaporeon Unlimited $4.7K→$10.5K (single sale) · Legendary Gengar RH $208K→$408K (Fanatics Collect Jun 14, pop 12) · Dark Dragonite RH $14.4K→$60K (single sale) · Dark Blastoise RH $28.5K→$36K · Mewtwo RH $72.1K→$55K · Gyarados RH $36.9K→$12.6K (last documented PSA 10 print Nov 2025, pop 21 — flagged stale) · Card Ladder PSA 9/10 sales now count as dated prints inside every set leg and card path · PSA 7/8 months now need ≥2 sales to register as an own move (single-sale months were dragging September) · .VPI weights: Legendary Collection 4.8%→9.5% (Base 15.5, Skyridge 10.7, Aquapolis 8.3, Neo Genesis 7.1 trimmed) · chases now listed in PSA 10 order within each set · tape rows sourced from Card Ladder now say so and link to the ladder (107 rows); 77 link to the eBay listing; 13 keep a PriceCharting link

12:28 UTC — daily refresh

Daily refresh: 384 new dated sales, 25 marks moved, 1 box marks recomputed, pops refreshed for 27 Gold Stars (no PSA 10 pop changes), 0 ask prices updated, all 92 tracked asks verified live. Card Ladder unreachable (kept previous CL marks); failed: box:BASE:shd. [2026-09-06: the Treecko ★ PSA 9 line was an ungraded sale and has been struck — see the data correction entry]

11:59 UTC — build v47 · Gym deep dive + eBay tape links

Gym Heroes & Gym Challenge re-priced from Card Ladder last sales (all 1st Edition prints) and PriceCharting guides (Unlimited prints): Sabrina's Gengar 1st $29.1K→$52.3K (CL Jul 16), Blaine's Moltres 1st $9.15K→$14.4K (CL Jul 19; 6 sales $12–15.6K), Giovanni's Persian 1st $9.9K→$17.5K, Misty's Golduck 1st $12.6K→$13.8K, Giovanni's Gyarados 1st $5.4K→$7.0K, Blaine's Arcanine 1st $5.8K→$6.8K, Rocket's Moltres 1st $5.0K→$5.7K, Erika's Venusaur 1st $9.1K→$8.7K, Rocket's Mewtwo 1st $8.95K→$7.7K · ~700 dated Gym sales (PSA 7–9, raw) added with eBay item links · Rocket's Scyther 1st Ed: PriceCharting PSA 10 guide ($1,250) rejected as polluted by CGC-10 rows, mark held at $6.8K · tape and order-book rows now link to the eBay listing behind each sale (76 of 89 tape rows matched exactly; the rest keep their PriceCharting source link) · Umbreon ★ $216K Aug 9 sale now inside the series path (re-anchored) · index levels restated with the larger market factor sample (.GLDSTR 6,005.6→5,809.4, .AGG 4,221.4→4,108.5)

11:27 UTC — asks refresh (8h)

All 89 tracked asks re-verified live on their pages — no sales found; 2 price updates (Team Rocket 1st box AU$115K≈$82.8K, Poncho 231 PSA 8 $6.7K); Mudkip ★ listing regraded PSA 1→PSA 2 per its page; 11 new asks added (5 boxes, 6 Gold Stars); no sources blocked — eBay item pages fetched via search provenance; Heritage/Goldin not searched this run (time budget); Expedition box candidate was ended by its seller Jul 31, not added.

00:25 UTC — daily refresh (Sep 3 pulls)

Umbreon ★ PSA 10 $216K Aug 9 Card Ladder sale applied (+29% vs Jun $168K, new mark) · PC guide moves: Mudkip ★ $15,381, Regice ★ $17,474, Alakazam ★ $16,004, Poncho 230 $16,100, Poncho 231 $16,050 (Sep-2 $18K mark unsourced — reset to PC guide), Mario 294 $31,000 · Gym Challenge 1st box: Heritage $38,750 Aug 20 comp added, 4M median → $38,875 · Registeel ★ PC/Bill's guide divergence flagged · .GLDSTR 5910.6→6005.6, .PONCHO 4672.9→4546.8, .AGG 4216.6→4221.4

← 3 Sep 2026 · all days · 5 Sep 2026 →